Gombos is clearly underrated here. Hardcourt indoor is his best surface since the fast conditions and low ball bounce works perfectly for his playing style. 

Carreno-Busta has the complete opposite playing style. He likes more time for shots preparations and semi-slow conditions. 

The money-line odds are absolutely wrongly set. Busta is the favorite here, but under no circumstances, he should be 1.40 favorite. I expect a tight match, where the fine margin will decide the winner. It will be hard for Busta to break the Gombos serve in these fast conditions, and I do except that Gombos will force the sets to go to tie-breaks at least.

Therefore, we are getting a few options on what to bet on. I suggest taking the safest option. Handicap line +4.0 games is IMO too high, and Gombos should cover it even in straight sets loss. Also, the over games line and the Gombos to win line is quite tempting, but because it is R1 and you never know what to expect from the players, I will go with the "safest" bet. Good luck!

The implied probability of the outcome: 57.11 %

Ace Punya's probability of the outcome: 60.00 %

Minimum required odds to bet on the pick: 1.67

Additional potential value to bet: Gombos to win @3.11 (Pinnacle)